1. Introduction

    1.1 Why DecisionMaker

    1.2 Why Attrasoft DecisionMaker

    1.3 How to Operate Attrasoft DecisionMaker

    1.4 Step 1: Data Set and Data Collection

    1.4.1 Data Set
    1.4.2 Data Collection
     
    1.5 Step 2: Link

    1.6 Step 3: Run

    1.7 DecisionMaker's Sister

    1.8 DecisionMaker's Version



    1.   Introduction

    This is a neural network software, which simulates the function of a human brain. The software by itself cannot do anything. As a user, you are responsible to train this empty brain (linking your database to the DecisionMaker), after that, the software is ready to serve you as if it is one of your staff.


    1.1   Why DecisionMaker

    Making decisions based on your evaluation of the current situation is a way of life:
     

    • A breast cancer doctor decides whether you have cancer on not *;
    • A heart doctor decides how likely you will have heart disease *;
    • A bank decides whether to grant a loan to a customer, student *;
    • A family doctor sees many patients in a day and makes decisions to give prescriptions;
    • A company decided whether to hire a person;
    • A house buyer decides how much a house * is worth;
    • A company decided whether their your supervisors evaluate your employees fairly;
    • Parents decide which career a child should choose.


    *Examples based on real data are in the software.
     

    In general, a decision is made based on several factors. Some of them can be measured and have a historical track record. For example, a cancer doctor orders a set of tests (see chapter 2) and the test results are represented by numbers. If we train an intelligent machine with 100,000 cancer cases, then the machine can be just as good as a cancer doctor in diagnosis, if not better (see chapter 2).
     

    Making decisions is a way of life in many businesses. Many corporations already have their database in place that contains years of historical data. It is often overwhelming because of the sheer volume to mine the data for the purpose of strategic thinking, or simply to make a daily decision.
     

    This is where software can help you to make decisions based on your historical database. The software can learn years of experience from your database and use the knowledge to tell you what will happen if this were in the past. This provides you with a baseline for your decision making process. The software can learn years of experiences in seconds and is ready to serve you as if it is one of your staff.


    1.2   Why Attrasoft DecisionMaker

    Attrasoft DecisionMaker is a fast terabyte data processing tool for your database. Attrasoft DecisionMaker uses the data in a database to help you make business decisions. It does not matter what kind of database you have. What seems complicated to you, is not complicated to the Attrasoft DecisionMaker. After putting your data into the DecisionMaker, then in 2 clicks, suddenly your complicated problem will seem very simple.

    90% of the work in using the DecisionMaker is to prepare your database containing your historical data. (Many corporations already have their database in place that contains years of historical data.)

    10% of the remaining work is to operate the DecisionMaker (two clicks).

    The DecisionMaker is especially good if you have a terabyte or gigabyte database because of its accuracy and speed.

    The advantages of the Attrasoft DecisionMaker are:
     
     

    • The DecisionMaker is universal: it does not matter what you want to predict.
    • The DecisionMaker is one of a kind: it is designed to handle terabyte and gigabyte databases (No other database companies, however big, have such ability);
    • The DecisionMaker is fast: it is designed to handle such huge volumes of data in a way that you can make decisions instantaneously.
    • The DecisionMaker is very simple to operate: your business database is 90% of the work required to use the DecisionMaker. If you already have the data, then 90% of the work is done. 2 clicks are all that is required for the DecisionMaker to present you with a set of rated possibilities based on your historical database.

    Once your data is prepared correctly, the DecisionMaker is able to provide you with rated predictions on any subject or any problem. Attrasoft DecisionMaker can:
     
     

    • Decide whether to grant a loan to a customer, student *, ...
    • Decide whether to hire a person or not
    • Decide whether a patient has cancer *, heart disease *, thyroid disease *, ...., or not
    • Decide how likely a patient is going to get cancer, heart disease *, ....,
    • Decide the classification of a virus/bacteria within a group of virus/bacteria *, ...
    • Decide how much a house *, a car *, a boat, ... , is worth
    • Decide whether your supervisors evaluate your employees fairly
    • Decide whether your system (electronics systems, computer network, retail store, sexual harassment situation) is healthy
    • Decide regional supermarket price predictability based on accumulated database, ...
    • Decide which career a child should choose
    • Decide the outcome of a random event, like a horse race, ...
    • Identify an item in Forensic Science *, ...
    • ETC ....
    *Examples based on real data are in the software.


    1.3   How to Operate Attrasoft DecisionMaker

    The Attrasoft DecisionMaker makes patterns out of complicated problems. The DecisionMaker is based on the neural network technology developed at Attrasoft. A neural net learns from past experience; this makes the neural software operation different from other software: you have to train the software first. You have to teach the DecisionMaker by showing it your historical data.

    The software uses two files:
     

    • Problem-Database file: this is all the data you have collected about your problem and put it into one big database file. This file teaches the DecisionMaker your problem and the value of your experience.
    The "Problem database" is a generalized title which you will replace the word, "Problem", with the name of your specific problem. Example:
     
      • Credit Screening Database
      • Cancer Database
      • Census Income Database
      • Child Evaluation Database
      • ...
    • Question file: this file asks the question(s) you have based on your specific database. You want to use as much information (encoded in your database) as possible to arrive at intelligent answers.

    The software is a black box. The black box only has 1 parameter to setup plus 3 file names.

    All you need to do is:
     
     

    1. Put your database into the Problem Database file and put your questions in the Question file;
    2. Link these 2 files to the DecisionMaker; and
    3. Click a command of your choice.



    1.4   Step 1: Data Set and Data Collection

    If you want the software for digital decisions, chances are you already have decided the "data set" and have collected volumes of data. This will make using the DecisionMaker very simple.

    1.4.1   Data Set

    Let us start from the beginning:
     
     

    a "data set" is a set of relevant factors related to your prediction problem.
     
     
    Let us use the stock market as an example. Assume we want to know whether "Intel" will be up or down next month.
     
     

    What are the factors for a stock? i.e. what is a data set for a stock? There are hundreds of them:
     
     

    • Interest Rates
      • Short term: 3-month US Treasury Bills
      • Intermediate term: 5-year US Treasury Bills
      • Long term: 30-year US Treasury Bills
      • ...
    • Inflation
      • Inflation rate
      • Consumer Price Index
      • Producer Price Index
      • ...
    • Economy
      • GDP (Gross Domestic Product) Growth Rates
      • Leading Economic Indicators, a key measure of future economy activity
      • National Association of Purchasing Management Index
      • ...
    • Stock Market
      • Dow Jones Industrial Average (large)
      • NASDAQ Composite (technology)
      • S&P 500
      • Russell 2000 (small)
      • New highs/new lows
      • Volumes
      • ...
    • Stock-Specific
      • Stock value
      • PE-ratio (Earnings should not be used because of the discontinuity: it changes once every 3 months)
      • 200-day Moving Averages
      • 100-day Moving Averages
      • Stock/(100-day Moving Averages) ratio
      • Section Indicator (for Example, phil.semecond.index)
      • PR ratio (Price/Revenue, revenue should not be used because of the discontinuity: it changes once every 3 months)
      • ...
    • Other
      • Sentiment index
      • Which foot ball team wins
      • ...

    An example of a data set for Intel stock is:
     
     

    • 3-month US Treasury Bills
    • 30-year US Treasury Bills
    • Consumer Price Index
    • GDP (Gross Domestic Product) Growth Rates
    • Dow Jones Industrial Average monthly growth rate
    • NASDAQ Composite monthly growth rate
    • Intel Stock value monthly growth rate
    • PE-ratio
    • Up or down in percentage (next month)?

    There are 10 variables here: the first 9 are obtained at the beginning of one month; the question is: will the last variable be up or down?
     

    In the training phase, the historical data of all 10 variables is collected and the software is trained. In the working phase, the values of the first 9 variables are provided, the software tells you the value of the last variable.

    1.4.2   Data Collection

    Once a data set is chosen, the next task is to collect data. For the stock market, some data can be collected free from the Internet.

    The historical data for all 10 variables in the above example forms the stock-Database file. The values of the first 9 variables form your Question file. Both have to be fed into the DecisionMaker. The DecisionMaker learns from the stock-Database file, then looks at your questions and produces answers in the output file.


    1.5   Step 2: Link

    Once your historical data is all in one file and your questions are all in another file (step 1), these files are linked into the black box for training (step 2). In English, this means the DecisionMaker is learning your problem, your experience, and your values of your problem, starting from an empty but very smart brain. After that, the neural network black box is ready to make a prediction by clicking one command (step 3).


    1.6   Step 3: Run

    Once the link is completed, you need to click a prediction command ... the DecisionMaker will automatically provide you with all the possibilities and their respective probabilities ........ you have only clicked 2 buttons at this point ......... your complicated problem suddenly seems very simple.

    The software is a black box. The black box only has 2 parameters to setup:
     
     

    • database file and question file;
    • Precision level.

    The user's job is mainly in step 1: set up a data set and collect data, if necessary, preprocess data.
     
     

    • Step 1 takes 90% of the work. Step 1 is simply getting your historical data together into one file.
    • Step 2 is one click: link (link your problem-database file and your question file to the DecisionMaker).
    • Step 3 is one click: run.

    The Attrasoft neural network is the based on the so-called Boltzmann machine neural network; this special type of neural network will predict a distribution, which is a set of rated possibilities. (This is similar to the Internet search engine: when you use a Internet search engine, you will get a set of rated possibilities.)


    1.7   DecisionMaker's Sister

    There are two types of predictions:

    Order Predictor 2.6 when dealing with:
     

    • Predict Stock Market
    • Predict earnings and revenue of a company
    • Predict short term and long term interest rates
    • Predict commodity (gold, oil, corn,...) prices
    • Predict regional/worldwide price fluctuations for a particular merchandise item
    • Predict various indicators/indexes of the economy for strategic thinking and policy issues
    • Predict Lottery Numbers
    • Predict Dynamic Systems
    • Predict Markov Chains
    • Predict other complex systems
    �
     
    Order DecisionMaker 2.5 when dealing with:
     
    • Granting a loan
    • Hiring employees
    • Determine cancers
    • Horse race prediction
    • Health of a system
    • Regional price fluctuation
    • House, Car value
    • Stock market
    • Employee evaluations
    • Medical diagnostic testing
    • Geological pattern recognition
    ...


    1.8   DecisionMaker's Version

    The DecisionMaker has several versions:

    Version                     Neurons                        prices

    Standard version       65,000                         $99.99

    100K version           100,000                        $499

    250K version           250,000                        $999

    1M version               1,000,000                    $9999

    Other customized versions                            $999 or up
     

    Consulting fee:
     
     

    The free customer support covers how to operate your software.

    If you need help on how to encode your problem, how to choose a data set, how to convert string data to numerical data, how to handle missing data, ..., the consulting fees are:

    $250 per problem if the problem has 1000 rows or less;

    $500 per problem if the problem has 1,001-10,000 rows or less;

    $1000 per problem if the problem has more than 10,000 rows.