Total Operation in 2 Clicks

The detailed user's guide will be given in chapter 3 and 4. In this chapter, we will show you the minimum information to get started.

Overview

Assume you have a large database, say you have collected 30 years of data, and you want to make intelligent decisions based on the huge amounts of information in your database.

Here is your difficulty: you are overwhelmed by your terabyte data and lose a sense of the direction in the data.
 

What are you going to do? Order Attrasoft Predictor.

The prediction process has two phases:

Phase 1: from your historical database, you will determine a data set, which consists of the relevant variables for the prediction. Then get the data for these variables, if necessary, preprocess them such as calculating the moving-average.

Phase 2: Prepare all your data in one file, then in 2 clicks, you will have your answer instantaneously:

• Prepare Input file: this is all the data you have collected about your problem and put into one file; this file will teach the Predictor your problem and the value of your experience.

• The first click ----- link the data to the Predictor;
• The second click ----- get the prediction(s) to your question(s);

Total Operation in 2 Clicks
 

Assuming in phase 1, you have accumulated the data.
 

1. Formulate your raw data into a file, the input file;

 
2. Link the input file to the Predictor by clicking "Data/Link" (first of 2 clicks).

 
3. Once the file is in the Predictor, click "Real/+ Exponential" (second of 2 clicks).

Predictor presents you with all possible predictions and how valuable the Predictor thinks each prediction is via a confidence number or rating.
 

The confidence number is similar to the number in an Internet Search Engine: the higher that number, the more confidence the Predictor has in that prediction.
 

Predict What?
 

The Predictor predicts the values of the next period or next several periods. Take a stock data as an example,

• If you have daily data, you will predict next day's data;
• If you have weekly data, you will predict next week's data;
• If you have monthly data, you will predict next month's data;
• ...

Example: Intel stock Value

In this section, we want to predict the Intel stock value for 10/98, which is the latest data available to us at this time.
 

Phase 1: Intel Raw Data

1. Data Set

A data set is your choice of the variables, which you think will give you the best prediction.

We will choose the Intel stock as the sole factor for the prediction, i.e., the data set is the Intel stock. (This is, of course, only for the purpose of demonstrating how to operate the Predictor. Attrasoft does not recommend you use any particular data set for a stock.)

2. Data Collection

Free from the Internet, we can collect the following data. In chapter 5, we will show you how to do this.
 
 

Intel Corporation (INTC)

Monthly prices (Nov 1991 to Nov 1998)

DATE HIGH LOW CLOSE VOLUME 5m Avg

Nov-91 5.531 4.969 5.125 275020000

Dec-91 6.156 5.031 6.125 260759200

Jan-92 7.875 5.906 7.484 589994400

Feb-92 8.594 7.375 7.938 340300800

Mar-92 8.438 6.438 6.906 424595200 6.7156

Apr-92 7.406 6.125 6.688 443011200 7.0282

May-92 6.844 5.813 6.25 300004000 7.0532

Jun-92 7.219 5.969 7.125 346980000 6.9814

Jul-92 7.531 6.844 7.469 291545600 6.8876

Aug-92 7.656 6.781 7.25 197321600 6.9564

Sep-92 8.375 7.219 8.219 301148000 7.2626

Oct-92 8.641 7.594 8.438 389177600 7.7002

Nov-92 9.031 8.313 8.938 261600800 8.0628

Dec-92 11.438 8.875 10.875 480952800 8.744

Jan-93 14.75 10.781 13.344 745068800 9.9628

Feb-93 15 13.031 14.563 601308800 11.2316

Mar-93 15.156 13.906 14.375 506624000 12.419

Apr-93 15.125 10.688 11.891 947040800 13.0096

May-93 14.188 11.906 13.859 422287200 13.6064

Jun-93 15.125 13.219 13.75 357856000 13.6876

Jul-93 14.25 12.313 13.063 308065600 13.3876

Aug-93 16.813 13.063 16.063 373164000 13.7252

Sep-93 18.563 15.063 17.688 320584800 14.8846

Oct-93 18.469 15.375 15.813 505204400 15.2754

Nov-93 16.125 14.063 15.375 390534800 15.6004

Dec-93 16.188 14.063 15.5 372952800 16.0878

Jan-94 17.313 15.188 16.313 493524400 16.1378

Feb-94 17.313 15.125 17.188 347250000 16.0378

Mar-94 18.375 16.25 16.875 415659200 16.2502

Apr-94 17.75 14 15.25 464237200 16.2252

May-94 15.688 14.125 15.625 318720800 16.2502

Jun-94 16.25 14.313 14.625 295517600 15.9126

Jul-94 15.75 14.031 14.813 321685200 15.4376

Aug-94 16.875 14.156 16.438 388840800 15.3502

Sep-94 17.063 15 15.375 325405600 15.3752

Oct-94 15.75 14.344 15.531 419888800 15.3564

Nov-94 16.816 14.938 15.781 415400000 15.5876

Dec-94 16.438 14.375 15.969 531699200 15.8188

Jan-95 17.938 15.75 17.344 498236400 16

Feb-95 20.188 17.281 19.938 388339600 16.9126

Mar-95 22.5 19.594 21.219 488044400 18.0502

Apr-95 26.031 21.125 25.594 515628400 20.0128

May-95 29.75 25.719 28.063 680593200 22.4316

Jun-95 33.188 27.375 31.656 497274000 25.294

Jul-95 39.188 31.25 32.5 558346000 27.8064

Aug-95 33.625 28.563 30.688 493254400 29.7002

Sep-95 33.313 28.625 30.063 361194200 30.594

Oct-95 35.688 28.875 34.938 436342200 31.969

Nov-95 36.57 29.938 30.438 408954800 31.7254

Dec-95 32 27.594 28.375 310609400 30.9004

Jan-96 29.688 24.906 27.617 598129600 30.2862

Feb-96 30.813 27.43 29.406 283989000 30.1548

Mar-96 30.125 25.75 28.438 346666000 28.8548

Apr-96 35.188 28.188 33.875 413220000 29.5422

May-96 37.813 33.25 37.75 318156400 31.4172

Jun-96 38.875 35.125 36.719 278154800 33.2376

Jul-96 37.945 32.063 37.563 491226800 34.869

Aug-96 41.625 37.438 39.906 309881200 37.1626

Sep-96 49.75 39.25 47.719 322253000 39.9314

Oct-96 57.125 47.125 54.938 445910000 43.369

Nov-96 63.625 54 63.438 418029200 48.7128

Dec-96 70.75 61.688 65.469 451772200 54.294

Jan-97 82 63.813 81.125 557706400 62.5378

Feb-97 82.5 68.5 70.938 539579800 67.1816

Mar-97 75.125 62.875 69.563 545409600 70.1066

Apr-97 76.75 64.125 76.563 618080200 72.7316

May-97 84.875 70 75.75 596148200 74.7878

Jun-97 77.313 70.375 70.906 525439200 72.744

Jul-97 92.125 69.313 91.813 473075200 76.919

Aug-97 102 89.875 92.125 352819700 81.4314

Sep-97 99.25 92 92.313 258597900 84.5814

Oct-97 95.625 69.25 77 496699800 84.8314

Nov-97 81.75 72.016 77.625 318099500 86.1752

Dec-97 81.75 67.375 70.25 353535700 81.8626

Jan-98 82.875 70.5 81 339559700 79.6376

Feb-98 95.625 82.188 89.688 333269000 79.1126

Mar-98 91.375 74 78.063 425380400 79.3252

Apr-98 85.063 71.313 80.813 386529700 79.9628

May-98 85.438 71.25 71.438 271927700 80.2004

Jun-98 77.625 65.656 74.125 360081300 78.8254

Jul-98 88.25 72.25 84.438 396391200 77.7754

Aug-98 92.625 70.938 71.188 440267900 76.4004

Sep-98 89 69.75 85.75 369103300 77.3878

=========================================

Oct-98 90.813 75.813 89.188 393720800 80.9378

We will split the data into two parts:

• Nov-91 through Sep-98 data will be used to train the Predictor,
• Oct-98 data will be used to test the Predictor.

3. Preprocessing

To remove the noise, we will use the 5-month moving average, which is listed in column 6. Because this is monthly historical data, we will predict the 5-month moving average of Intel for the next month.

Operating the Predictor

Step 1. Prepared Input file

From the above raw data, set up the Intel file (5-month moving-average) in the following manner:

The input file is:

• Remark section:

• Number of variables/attributes:

• Data :

Figure 2. The Intel input file.
 

Step 2. Link the data to the Predictor

The above input file is in the software:

• the file name is "D_int2a.txt";
• the file is in the same directory where the Predictor is located (The default directory is C:\program Files\Attrasoft\Predictor 2.6).

1. Input File Name;

2. Output File Name;

3. Precision level of the prediction;

4. Trend of the prediction.

Figure 3. Click command: "Data/Link".
 
 
 
 

Figure 4. Link the input file to the Predictor
 
 

To link the data files, in the first textbox (Figure 4), enter

• D_intc2a.txt

The linking is completed ... just that easy. We will explain the other three textboxes later.

Step 3. Click command: "Real/-- Exponential"
 

Figure 5. The "Real" Menu.
 
 

Figure 5 shows the "Real" menu. "Real" means real number prediction. The other prediction is "Integer" prediction. Click "Real/-- Exponential" (second of 2 clicks) to get the answer. The running takes no time, and the following prediction file is opened automatically (See Figure 6):
 
 

=================== Beginning =====================
 

Possibility Confidence*Probability

81.2484 6400

77.8113 10344

76.0928 4235

84.6855 273

88.1226 1

86.404 33

79.5299 168

74.3742 8320

82.9669 261

---------------------------------------------------

Weighted Average

77.476

Highest Probability

77.8113 10344

Error of each number

0.859271
 

As we have shown in the earlier this section, the correct answer is:
 
 

The probabilities of the predictions roughly calculated as follows:
 
 

Figure. 6 The results of clicking "Real/-- Exponential" (second of 2 clicks)