5.3 Data Collection From the Internet
5.7 A Simple Prediction: Intel 2
5.8 Prediction with Preprocessing: Intel 4
For the sake of discussion, we will predict Intel stock one-month ahead. You can obviously substitute Intel for any other stock or market index. To predict Intel one month ahead, the monthly data is required. You can change the prediction to one-day, one-week, or one-year ahead by substituting daily, weekly, or yearly data, respectively.
Attrasoft Predictor predicts events based on the past history:
A data set is a collection of variables used to make a prediction. Examples of the variables are various stocks and indexes, various bond rates, various interest rates, various economic indexes, and any other indexes you like, please see chapter 1 for details. Choosing a data set is your job. This is the most important factor in the stock prediction.
The Predictor predicts the upper and lower bounds. In general, you should use both commands and pick up number between the upper and lower bounds.
The output of the Predictor is a distribution, similar to the output of an Internet search Engine: you get a outcome and a ranking number for it.
A data set is a collection of variables used to make a prediction. Three examples will be given below. These examples must be understood as illustrations on how to use the Predictor. They are not intended to show you how to choose the data set. It is your job to choose a data set. This is where your expertise comes in.
Example 1 To predict the Intel stock price 1 month ahead, a data set is
Data Collection From the Internet
It is important to avoid any typing in data collection. There are many sites on the Internet, which offer free data. In the following, we will show you how to download data from the "Microsoft Investor" section of the Microsoft Networks.
Microsoft Excel is required for the following. Assume we are trying to collect data about the Intel Corp. (intc) for the last 7 years, here is the procedure:
First Time User:
http://investor.msn.com/quotes/quotes.asp?beenthere=1&Page=Research&Item=QuoteDetail
click "Enter ..." and enter "intc";
After the First Time :
http://investor.msn.com/charts/charting.asp?Symbol=intc
on the page enter "intc";
Now, you have obtained the Intel stock data for the
last 7 years, and it looks like this:
Intel Corporation (INTC)
Monthly prices (Dec 1991 to Nov 1998)
DATE HIGH LOW CLOSE VOLUME
Oct-98 90.813 75.813 89.188 393720800
Sep-98 89 69.75 85.75 369103300
Aug-98 92.625 70.938 71.188 440267900
Jul-98 88.25 72.25 84.438 396391200
Jun-98 77.625 65.656 74.125 360081300
May-98 85.438 71.25 71.438 271927700
Apr-98 85.063 71.313 80.813 386529700
Mar-98 91.375 74 78.063 425380400
Feb-98 95.625 82.188 89.688 333269000
Jan-98 82.875 70.5 81 339559700
Dec-97 81.75 67.375 70.25 353535700
Nov-97 81.75 72.016 77.625 318099500
Oct-97 95.625 69.25 77 496699800
Sep-97 99.25 92 92.313 258597900
Aug-97 102 89.875 92.125 352819700
Jul-97 92.125 69.313 91.813 473075200
Jun-97 77.313 70.375 70.906 525439200
May-97 84.875 70 75.75 596148200
Apr-97 76.75 64.125 76.563 618080200
Mar-97 75.125 62.875 69.563 545409600
Feb-97 82.5 68.5 70.938 539579800
Jan-97 82 63.813 81.125 557706400
Dec-96 70.75 61.688 65.469 451772200
Nov-96 63.625 54 63.438 418029200
Oct-96 57.125 47.125 54.938 445910000
Sep-96 49.75 39.25 47.719 322253000
Aug-96 41.625 37.438 39.906 309881200
Jul-96 37.945 32.063 37.563 491226800
Jun-96 38.875 35.125 36.719 278154800
May-96 37.813 33.25 37.75 318156400
Apr-96 35.188 28.188 33.875 413220000
Mar-96 30.125 25.75 28.438 346666000
Feb-96 30.813 27.43 29.406 283989000
Jan-96 29.688 24.906 27.617 598129600
Dec-95 32 27.594 28.375 310609400
Nov-95 36.57 29.938 30.438 408954800
Oct-95 35.688 28.875 34.938 436342200
Sep-95 33.313 28.625 30.063 361194200
Aug-95 33.625 28.563 30.688 493254400
Jul-95 39.188 31.25 32.5 558346000
Jun-95 33.188 27.375 31.656 497274000
May-95 29.75 25.719 28.063 680593200
Apr-95 26.031 21.125 25.594 515628400
Mar-95 22.5 19.594 21.219 488044400
Feb-95 20.188 17.281 19.938 388339600
Jan-95 17.938 15.75 17.344 498236400
Dec-94 16.438 14.375 15.969 531699200
Nov-94 16.816 14.938 15.781 415400000
Oct-94 15.75 14.344 15.531 419888800
Sep-94 17.063 15 15.375 325405600
Aug-94 16.875 14.156 16.438 388840800
Jul-94 15.75 14.031 14.813 321685200
Jun-94 16.25 14.313 14.625 295517600
May-94 15.688 14.125 15.625 318720800
Apr-94 17.75 14 15.25 464237200
Mar-94 18.375 16.25 16.875 415659200
Feb-94 17.313 15.125 17.188 347250000
Jan-94 17.313 15.188 16.313 493524400
Dec-93 16.188 14.063 15.5 372952800
Nov-93 16.125 14.063 15.375 390534800
Oct-93 18.469 15.375 15.813 505204400
Sep-93 18.563 15.063 17.688 320584800
Aug-93 16.813 13.063 16.063 373164000
Jul-93 14.25 12.313 13.063 308065600
Jun-93 15.125 13.219 13.75 357856000
May-93 14.188 11.906 13.859 422287200
Apr-93 15.125 10.688 11.891 947040800
Mar-93 15.156 13.906 14.375 506624000
Feb-93 15 13.031 14.563 601308800
Jan-93 14.75 10.781 13.344 745068800
Dec-92 11.438 8.875 10.875 480952800
Nov-92 9.031 8.313 8.938 261600800
Oct-92 8.641 7.594 8.438 389177600
Sep-92 8.375 7.219 8.219 301148000
Aug-92 7.656 6.781 7.25 197321600
Jul-92 7.531 6.844 7.469 291545600
Jun-92 7.219 5.969 7.125 346980000
May-92 6.844 5.813 6.25 300004000
Apr-92 7.406 6.125 6.688 443011200
Mar-92 8.438 6.438 6.906 424595200
Feb-92 8.594 7.375 7.938 340300800
Jan-92 7.875 5.906 7.484 589994400
Dec-91 6.156 5.031 6.125 260759200
Now we want:
Now without typing a single number, you have obtained the Intel data
in the Excel spread sheet. Before you can use the data, you have to preprocess
it for two or three steps:
To save space, please refer to the last chapter.
The above process produces Intel data. In general, you might have several
variables and you will have to repeat the above processes several time,
for example,
Data preparation for the prediction is the most important factor in the prediction or forecast. Data preparation means:
The factors, that will increase your chance of success, are
Stocks like Intel or Microsoft grows exponentially, therefore, you should
use the following commands:
x = 5.6 + 0.3 - 0.2 ,
i.e. the result is likely to be 5.6, but could be in the range [5.4, 5.9]; then
'+' prediction ==> 5.9
'--' prediction ==> 5.4.
'+' and '--' predictions yield results more often than the '0'
prediction, therefore, consider these two commands first. '0' prediction,
on other hand, is more accurate than the other two, if it produces a prediction.
Chapter 2 presents a complete example. This example can be generated by clicking "Example/Intel 2".
Prediction with Preprocessing: Intel 4
The data set of this example is:
The goal is predict the 5-month moving average of Intel on Oct-98, which is 80.9378.
Click "Real/-- Exponential", we get
76.0928 1086.51 107.244 92
79.5299 1101.96 103.787 58
---------------------------------------------------
Weighted Average
77.4218 1092.48 105.907
Highest Probability
76.0928 1086.51 107.244 92
Error of each number
0.859271 3.86403 0.86441
86.404 1078.78 102.058 262
77.8113 1071.05 105.515 4000
76.0928 1086.51 100.329 364
81.2484 1063.32 105.515 330
82.9669 1063.32 105.515 398
82.9669 1071.05 105.515 670
79.5299 1094.23 110.702 160
76.0928 1086.51 107.244 228
81.2484 1101.96 108.973 160
79.5299 1101.96 103.787 126
77.8113 1086.51 107.244 364
76.0928 1094.23 110.702 330
---------------------------------------------------
Weighted Average
78.9408 1075.29 105.665
Highest Probability
77.8113 1071.05 105.515 4000
Error of each number
0.859271 3.86403 0.86441
There are times you want to predict a new stock, "A", where no data is available. You can substitute the stock, "A", with another similar stock, "B".
You have to be careful here: if you use a 5-trend prediction, you must have at least 4 rows of "A" stock. if you use a 6-trend prediction, you must have at least 5 rows of "A" stock.
To predict Intel, the data set of this example is:
The goal is predict the 5-month moving average of Intel on Oct-98, which is 80.9378.
Click "Real/-- Exponential", we get
79.0219 34576
76.242 7936
81.8018 20184
84.5816 380
87.3615 256
62.3426 64
---------------------------------------------------
Weighted Average
79.6091
Highest Probability
79.0219 34576
Error of each number
1.38994
Standard version has 10,000 neurons, and a certain number of internal neurons. If you need a larger software, please contact http://attrasoft.com.
In your prediction, if you set
N*M*K <= 10,000 neurons ��. Standard version;This number can go as high as 1,000,000 in the customized version.