Table of Contents
The detailed user's guide will be given in chapter 3 and 4. In this chapter, we will show you the minimum information to get started.
The operation of the PredictorPro is:
Assume you have a large database, say you have collected 30 years of data, and you want to make intelligent decisions based on the huge amounts of information in your database.
Here is your difficulty: you are overwhelmed by your terabyte data and lose a sense of the direction in the data.
What are you going to do? Order Attrasoft PredictorPro.
The prediction process has two phases:
Phase 1: from your historical database, you will determine a data set, which consists of the relevant variables for the prediction. Then get the data for these variables, if necessary, preprocess them such as calculating the moving-average.
Assuming in phase 1, you have accumulated the data.
The confidence number is similar to the number in an Internet Search
Engine: the higher that number, the more confidence the PredictorPro
has in that prediction.
The PredictorPro predicts the values of the next period or next several periods. Take stock data as an example,
In this section, we want to predict the Intel stock value for 10/98.
1. Data Set
A data set is your choice of the variables, which you think will
give you the best prediction. We will choose the Intel stock as the sole
factor for the prediction, i.e., the data set is the Intel stock. (This
is, of course, only for the purpose of demonstrating how to operate the
Attrasoft does not recommend you use any particular data set for a stock.)
2. Data Collection
Free from the Internet, we can collect the following data. In chapter 5, we will show you how to do this.
Intel Corporation (INTC)
May-98 85.438 71.25
71.438 271927700 80.2004
We will split the data into two parts:
To remove the noise, we will use the 5-month moving average, which is listed in column 6. Because this is monthly historical data, we will predict the 5-month moving average of Intel for the next month.
Step 1. Prepared Input file
From the above raw data, set up the Intel file (5-month moving-average)
in the following manner:
The input file is:
Purpose: To predict next month Intel.
Data set: 5-month moving average of Intel, Nov-91 through Sep-98
Next 5-month moving average:
The PredictorPro will ignore this section.
Figure 2. The Intel input file.
Step 2. Link the data to the PredictorPro
The above input file, "D_int2a.txt", is in the default directory of the software. Click "File/Open" and open this file. This is the first of 2 clicks. The linking is completed ... just that easy.
To check if the file is linked correctly, click “Data/Link” (see Figure
3)., and a dialog box will appear (see Figure 4).
Figure 3. Click command: "Data/Link".
Figure 4. Link the input file to the PredictorPro
If the PredictorPro is linked to the data files, then the first
textbox in Figure 4 should be “D_intc2a.txt”, which is the input file.
We will explain the other three textboxes later.
Step 3. Click command: "Real/-- Exponential"
Figure 5. The "Real" Menu.
Figure 5 shows the "Real" menu. "Real" means real number prediction. The other prediction is "Integer" prediction. Click "Real/-- Exponential" (second of 2 clicks) to get the answer. The running takes no time, and the following prediction file is opened automatically (See Figure 6):
=================== Beginning =====================
As we have shown in the earlier this section, the correct answer is:
5 month moving average
Ignoring results below 1000, the prediction is
where 0.859271 is given by the last line of the output file. The prediction is:
Weighted Average = 77.476 ± 0.859271
This prediction is very close to 80.9378. The probabilities of the predictions are calculated as follows:
6400 / (6400 + 10344 + 4235 + 8320) = 0.218
Figure 6 The results of clicking "Real/-- Exponential" (second
of 2 clicks)
Online Order/Online Fax order:
Attrasoft PredictorPro for Windows
Version 2.8 ($494.99 + $5 US Shipping and Handling)
Mail Order: 499.99 (S&H included)
PredictorProSend questions or comments to:
Attrasoft, P. O. Box 13051, Savannah, GA. 31406, USA
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