Example 1

Forecast 30 Days into the Future

Topic: Intel Stock Value
 


Before the prediction, we have to set up the data set, which is a collection of variables.

In this example, the data set is { 5-month moving average of Intel }, one variable.

Let us get some free data and make a prediction.

Data Collection

Preprocessing Using Microsoft Excel

Predictor Input File

Run Attrasoft Predictor 2.4

How good is the result based on the one-variable model?

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Return

Intel Data Collected from Internet (Free)

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Requirements:

Assume we are trying to collect data about the Intel Corp. (intc) for the last five years, here is the
procedure:
 
Set up:
   

 
Download Data ...

     1. Repeat the above step 1 through step 3;

     2. Click "I see the Chart"; (now you should see Intel stock chart);

     3.  On this page, find "Period", click it and then click .......  "5 Year" (for example);

     4. Click "Export Data", now your Microsoft Excel will be opened, and the data is the spreadsheet file "intc.csv".
 

Now, you have obtained the Intel stock data for the last five years, and it looks like this:

 

Intel Corp

Date, High, Low, Close, Volume

05/01/97,169.75,140,151.5,298074100

04/01/97,153.5,128.25,153.125,309040100

03/03/97,150.25,125.75,139.125,272704800

02/03/97,165,137,141.875,269789900

01/02/97,164,127.625,162.25,278853200

12/02/96,141.5,123.375,130.938,225886100

11/01/96,127.25,108,126.875,209014600

10/01/96,114.25,94.25,109.875,222955000

09/03/96,99.5,78.5,95.4375,161126500

08/01/96,83.25,74.875,79.8125,154940600

07/01/96,75.8906,64.125,75.125,245613400

06/03/96,77.75,70.25,73.4375,139077400

05/01/96,75.625,66.5,75.5,159078200

04/01/96,70.375,56.375,67.75,206610000

03/01/96,60.25,51.5,56.875,173333000

02/01/96,61.625,54.8594,58.8125,141994500

01/02/96,59.375,49.8125,55.2344,299064800

12/01/95,64,55.1875,56.75,155304700

11/01/95,73.1406,59.875,60.875,204477400

10/02/95,71.375,57.75,69.875,218171100

09/01/95,66.625,57.25,60.125,180597100

08/01/95,67.25,57.125,61.375,246627200

07/03/95,78.375,62.5,65,279173000

06/01/95,66.375,54.75,63.3125,248637000

05/01/95,59.5,51.4375,56.125,340296600

04/03/95,52.0625,42.25,51.1875,257814200

03/01/95,45,39.1875,42.4375,244022200

02/01/95,40.375,34.5625,39.875,194169800

01/03/95,35.875,31.5,34.6875,249118200

12/01/94,32.875,28.75,31.9375,265849600

11/01/94,33.6328,29.875,31.5625,207700000

10/03/94,31.5,28.6875,31.0625,209944400

09/01/94,34.125,30,30.75,162702800

08/01/94,33.75,28.3125,32.875,194420400

07/01/94,31.5,28.0625,29.625,160842600

06/01/94,32.5,28.625,29.25,147758800

05/02/94,31.375,28.25,31.25,159360400

04/04/94,35.5,28,30.5,232118600

03/01/94,36.75,32.5,33.75,207829600

02/01/94,34.625,30.25,34.375,173625000

01/03/94,34.625,30.375,32.625,246762200

12/01/93,32.375,28.125,31,186476400

11/01/93,32.25,28.125,30.75,195267400

10/01/93,36.9375,30.75,31.625,252602200

09/01/93,37.125,30.125,35.375,160292400

08/02/93,33.625,26.125,32.125,186582000

07/01/93,28.5,24.625,26.125,154032800

06/01/93,30.25,26.4375,27.5,178928000

05/03/93,28.375,23.8125,27.7188,211143600

04/01/93,30.25,21.375,23.7813,473520400

03/01/93,30.3125,27.8125,28.75,253312000

02/01/93,30,26.0625,29.125,300654400

01/04/93,29.5,21.5625,26.6875,372534400

12/01/92,22.875,17.75,21.75,240476400

11/02/92,18.0625,16.625,17.875,130800400

10/01/92,17.2813,15.1875,16.875,194588800

09/01/92,16.75,14.4375,16.4375,150574000

08/03/92,15.3125,13.5625,14.5,98660800

07/01/92,15.0625,13.6875,14.9375,145772800

06/02/92,14.4375,11.9375,14.25,168246800

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Preprocessing Using Microsoft Excel

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 Now, using Microsoft Excel, within a few clicks (no typing, please), we will

(1) sort the data (latest data last);

(2) remove high, low, volume-column;

(3) compute 5-month moving average.

The results are:
IntelCorp
Date Close MovingAvg
6/2/92
14.25
7/1/92
14.9375
8/3/92
14.5
9/1/92
16.4375
10/1/92
16.875
15.4
11/2/92
17.875
16.125
12/1/92
21.75
17.4875
1/4/93
26.6875
19.925
2/1/93
29.125
22.4625
3/1/93
28.75
24.8375
4/1/93
23.7813
26.01876
5/3/93
27.7188
27.21252
6/1/93
27.5
27.37502
7/1/93
26.125
26.77502
8/2/93
32.125
27.45002
9/1/93
35.375
29.76876
10/1/93
31.625
30.55
11/1/93
30.75
31.2
12/1/93
31
32.175
1/3/94
32.625
32.275
2/1/94
34.375
32.075
3/1/94
33.75
32.5
4/4/94
30.5
32.45
5/2/94
31.25
32.5
6/1/94
29.25
31.825
7/1/94
29.625
30.875
8/1/94
32.875
30.7
9/1/94
30.75
30.75
10/3/94
31.0625
30.7125
11/1/94
31.5625
31.175
12/1/94
31.9375
31.6375
1/3/95
34.6875
32
2/1/95
39.875
33.825
3/1/95
42.4375
36.1
4/3/95
51.1875
40.025
5/1/95
56.125
44.8625
6/1/95
63.3125
50.5875
7/3/95
65
55.6125
8/1/95
61.375
59.4
9/1/95
60.125
61.1875
10/2/95
69.875
63.9375
11/1/95
60.875
63.45
12/1/95
56.75
61.8
1/2/96
55.2344
60.57188
2/1/96
58.8125
60.30938
3/1/96
56.875
57.70938
4/1/96
67.75
59.08438
5/1/96
75.5
62.83438
6/3/96
73.4375
66.475
7/1/96
75.125
69.7375
8/1/96
79.8125
74.325
9/3/96
95.4375
79.8625
10/1/96
109.875
86.7375
11/1/96
126.875
97.425
12/2/96
130.938
108.5876
1/2/97
162.25
125.0751
2/3/97
141.875
134.3626
3/3/97
139.125
140.2126
4/1/97
153.125
145.4626
5/1/97
151.5
149.575
 The question is: what is next ? (6/2/97, ?, ?)

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Attrasoft Predictor Input File

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The input data file is:

*

Predict Intel stock 1 month ahead.

Model = { 5-month-moving-average (Intel) }.

Data 6/92 - 5/97.

*

1

 

15.4

16.125

17.4875

19.925

22.4625

24.8375

26.01876

27.21252

27.37502

26.77502

27.45002

29.76876

30.55

31.2

32.175

32.275

32.075

32.5

32.45

32.5

31.825

30.875

30.7

30.75

30.7125

31.175

31.6375

32

33.825

36.1

40.025

44.8625

50.5875

55.6125

59.4

61.1875

63.9375

63.45

61.8

60.57188

60.30938

57.70938

59.08438

62.83438

66.475

69.7375

74.325

79.8625

86.7375

97.425

108.5876

125.0751

134.3626

140.2126

145.4626

149.575

The question is: what is the next moving average on 6/2/97?

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Run Attrasoft Predictor 2.4

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If you

 then with one click, Attrasoft Prediction 2.4 will give the following 30 day forecasts, which will indicate the moving average on 6-2-97. The forecasts are listed as a distribution, i.e. a set of possibilities and their relative probabilities. Of those 30 days forecasts (Possibility, Relative Probability), the Relative Probability in the distribution should lead you to the most likely stock value which will occure on 6-2-97. (The Relative Probability of a possibility is also the Confidence of the prediction on that possibility). The largest Relative Probability is the Confidence of the prediction.

 Predictor Forecasts:

-----------------------------------------------------------------------

Possibility ...................Relative Probability(Confidence)

[ 162.21 , 163.214) ......466

[ 146.14 , 147.144) .......194

[ 149.153 , 150.157) ......558

[ 148.149 , 149.153) ......1126

[ 151.162 , 152.166) .......888

[ 144.131 , 145.135) .......126

[ 157.188 , 158.192) .......364

-----------------------------------------------------------------------

30 Day Prediction:

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How good is the result?

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 The real data of Intel stock value on 6-2-97 is $154.626,( Data obtained from here) from which the next moving average can be calculated:
2/3/97
141.875
134.3626
3/3/97
139.125
140.2126
4/1/97
153.125
145.4626
5/1/97
151.5
149.575
6/2/97
154.626
148.0502
On 6-2-97, the 5-month Intel moving average is 148.0502. June 2, 1997 is the date of the next 5-month moving average you want the attrasoft Predictor to forecast. Attrasoft Predictor forecast for 6-2-97 were:

[ 148.149 , 149.153) is the most likely result, with 30.25% probability.

[ 151.162 , 152.166) is the next most likely result, with 23.86% probability.

The reality is :

The 5-month moving average of Intel on 6/2/97 is 148.0502.

It is a direct hit!

The Attrasoft Predictor 2.4 is more than 99% accurate in this case, with a simple data set of one variable. If you are not satisfied with the 30% probability, add more variables to the data set, or use a longer trend. After all, using Intel stock value alone to predict is such a poor model.

Now it is YOUR TURN ... to ... sharpen YOUR SKILL on this amazing tool!!! Practice and perfection can be yours!

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Last Revised: 9/97