6.4 Five Steps for Using the Predictor
Attrasoft Predictor is a universal predictor, which can be applied to any prediction problem. The Predictor reads a sequence of numbers and predicts the distribution for the next row of numbers in line.
Let us apply this tool to lottery forecast. The lottery is designed such that each possible number has equal odds, regardless of the past history of winning numbers. Mathematically every number has an equal probability to appear. In the long run, the statistics obtained by the Predictor should indicate that each possibility appeared with an equal probability. In the short run, the probability distribution might be a bit different from the perfectly random case because of statistical fluctuation. Of course, the difference is expected to be small.
Throughout this chapter, we will assume we are playing a game called "CASH 3". This is a real game in Georgia, USA. All it takes is the right 3 numbers and you could win $500. You pay $1.00 for selecting a 3-digit number between 000 and 999. All data used in this chapter will be real lottery data (actual winning CASH 3 lottery numbers in Georgia, USA).
A round is defined as the number of attempts it takes for you to win once. In the long run, according to the odds, you will lose half of the money you have played each round in the CASH 3 game. Just to come out even, you have to beat the odds by a factor of two. If you can consistently beat the odds by a factor of four, you will double the money you have played in each round.
When implementation of a random system is perfect, mathematically speaking, it is impossible to win. Predicting the lottery is much harder than predicting the stock market, the weather, or an earthquake, even though lottery dynamic systems are much simpler than stock market. Everyone knows this theory: each possibility has an equal probability, regardless of the history. The theory also indicates the next number is not predictable. We believe all lottery-picking software operates under this rule.
If you have a scientific mind, this rule is enough to turn you back, i.e. the lottery is not your game. In reality, millions of people do play the lottery; most of the people do understand the lottery theory--each possibility has an equal probability. For those who are not yet familiar with this rule, reality will make them learn this rule in a hurry. Most people choose their numbers at random (according to a daily event or plug in dates that have significance to them, such as anniversary dates or family birthdays); meaning, most people do not have a tool to pick numbers systematically. There is a market demand for such a tool, from those who understand the theory of lottery numbers. This tool turns playing the lottery into a systematic game, with a clearly defined strategy and outcome (win or lose).
Attrasoft Predictor offers such a tool for the game. Loosely speaking, this tool will:
There is one criterion and two states for the game:
The two states are the simulation-state and the real-state. You start
the game by learning the tool and getting a feel of how to use this tool.
When making a prediction using the Attrasoft Predictor, it is important to set the correct expectation. You must know what to expect from the Predictor. You have to play the game systematically and switch states as required. The purpose of the prediction is to increase the chance of winning, compared with the natural course. This game requires a trail of records to check your performance. If you do not have time to track your record, this is not your game. If you can not switch the state, from real state to simulation state and back again according to the criteria given above, this is not your game.
Remember, the normal probability of winning is 0.001; the Predictor is a systematic tool, which allows you to play a highly personal game (if 1000 people play the lottery on exactly the same data, there will be 1000 different outcomes). As a result, some people will deviate the normal probability of 0.001 sufficiently to reach 0.004. However, once you have reached 0.004 probability, you are not expected to stay there forever. At some point later, you are expected to leave the real state (your luck has run out) and to switch back to the simulation state so that in the long run, you are not too far away from the normal probability of 0.001. In the short run ( for the CASH 3, this means in the order of 1000 attempts), it is justifiable that your chance can differ from the normal probability of 0.001. However, in the long run (for the CASH 3, typically 10,000 to 10,0000 attempts), your chance is expected to be around 0.001. For the Predictor, the typical play is 2500 attempts, which is considered a short run; therefore, the probability of 0.004 for some person is achievable.
To use the Predictor, You must learn two simple things:
We define "one round" as your continuously selecting a 3-digit number randomly until you win. The length of one round is the number of attempts you have completed until you win. If you play once and win, the length of one round is 1 attempt. If you have played 2,000 times ($2,000) and win, then the length of one round is 2,000 attempts.
The odds for winning "CASH 3" is 1:1,000. In other words, on average it takes you 1,000 attempts to win. To estimate the number of attempts in one round, just use the inverse of the odds:
Odds = 1/1,000
Average Length of One Round = 1/ Odds
= 1/ (1/1,000) = 1,000
Therefore, on average, the length of one round is 1,000 attempts. Result: on average after one round, you will spend $1,000 and will have won once to get $500 back, i.e. you will lose half of the money you have played in one round.
If you start with $2,000, after one round, on average you will have $1,000 (2000/2 = 1000) left; after two rounds, you will have $500 (1000/2 = 500) left. After three rounds, you might have nothing left.
The time required to play one round depends on you. You can play all 1,000 numbers in one day and finish one round in one day, or you can play one number every other day and finish the round in 2,000 days.
The data used here is obtained from Georgia-State-Lottery-Office, which is real data. It consists of the history of the winning numbers. We will call the three digits (x y z). It looks like this:
Date x y z
----------------------------------------
01-Jan-97 6 2 7
02-Jan-97 6 0 5
03-Jan-97 1 8 8
04-Jan-97 5 1 2
05-Jan-97 4 0 3
06-Jan-97 6 0 8
07-Jan-97 9 9 9
08-Jan-97 2 2 2
09-Jan-97 0 1 9
. . .
11-May-97 5 1 3
12-May-97 1 5 9
13-May-97 7 2 3
14-May-97 6 4 0
15-May-97 6 7 6
16-May-97 3 4 2
17-May-97 6 4 5
18-May-97 9 7 4
19-May-97 4 2 0
20-May-97 7 5 9
21-May-97 4 3 0
Note: the data left out above for saving space. Just click the command
"Example/Cash 3 (x y z)", and you will see all the data.
A data set is a set of variables used for a prediction. There are seven possible data sets in CASH 3:
A combination of 1 through 3; orIt makes sense to predict one digit at a time, because the winning numbers are generated one at a time. However, you can also predict two digits at a time or three digits at a time, by using the Predictor.A combination of 3 and 4; or
A combination of 2 and 5; or
A combination of 1 and 6; or
7 alone.
Before you play real games with real dollars, you should make at least 10 rounds of simulations with past data, or future data (pretending you have bought the tickets for certain numbers without the economic cost of your learning experience). Do not jump into the game directly without any experience. You should simulate the game for 10 rounds before actually switching to the real state.
This is not your game:
(1) If you do not have time for a long-term plan:
(2) If you can not achieve the desired rate:
Five Steps for Using the Predictor
The Predictor looks at the history of winning numbers and predicts the next row of numbers. The Predictor is a tool for ranking all possibilities in the CASH 3 game. The results of this tool are still subject to human interpretation. You should develop your own system when using the Attrasoft Predictor.
The procedure is:
Now we list the details of each step:
Step 1 Collect data and choose a data set
Lottery data is the history of wining numbers. The data can be collected easily. Contact the state lottery office; they are more than happy to offer you all the data you need. You can also search from the Internet. The Predictor provides you with seven different examples to predict numbers in CASH 3, as we have discussed in the last section.
If you are serious about playing the lottery, learn how to use Microsoft
Excel or any other spreadsheet. Excel gives you the power to prepare data
used by the Predictor easily. Your original data should be in one
Excel file. Predictor only takes text files, this is not a problem,
just click "File/Save as" in Excel to save the data to another file in
the text format.
Example Cut and Paste in Excel
____
5 0 6
7 1 8
9 2 0
1 3 2
3 4 4
5 5 6
Open a new spreadsheet and copy the above data in the new sheet; then
cut the y-column and "File/Save as" to a new text file. Now you
will have the following:
___
5 6
7 8
9 0
1 2
3 4
5 6
Step 2 Link (first of three clicks, please see chapter
3).
Step 3 Click command: "Integer/+ Linear Enumerative"
Step 4 Click command: "Integer/-- Linear Enumerative"
The Predictor will give the range of possible numbers. The command
"Integer/+ Enumerative" gives you the upper bounds of the predicted winning
number and the command "Integer/-- Enumerative" gives you the lower bounds
of the predicted winning number. The winning number is expected to be somewhere
between the upper bound and the lower bound.
Step 5 Analysis
From the above two clicks, you will get a upper-string and a lower-string.
The basic information from a prediction includes:
This section is intended to show you how to use the Predictor as a tool. Specifically, the Predictor helps you rank the possibilities.
It is completely up to you to decide how to use this tool:
The data used in this section has been listed earlier, i.e. Georgia
(USA) CASH 3 winning numbers (1/1/97 - 5/21/97). There are seven examples
packed in the Predictor, each one can be generated by one click.
On the menu bar, the Example menu can generate the following examples:
Click "Example/Cash 3 (x)" to generate the example. This example attempts
to predict the first digit in Cash 3. The data file is "D_ch3X.txt". If
this is your data, you have to link the data. Here is how to link:
GA Cash 3
First Digit
(x)
*
1
6
6
1
. . .
6
6
3
Click command: "Integer/+ Linear Enumerative" (the
second click), you will get:
1 5122
2 2
3 576
4 2
5 130
6 64
7 139
9 18
---------------------------------------------------
Weighted Average
1
Highest Probability
1 5122
Error of each number
0.495
The confidence for this prediction is 5122. The upper bound is most
likely to be 1, but can also be 3, or 7. To rank the upper bound, the Predictor
gives the following list:
1; 3; 7; 5; 6; 8; (2, 4); (0, 9).
Here 2 and 4 have an equal ranking, with rating = 2; and 0 and 9
have an equal ranking, with rating = 0. For simplicity, we pick us 3 numbers:
0 8
1 1280
3 8
4 256
5 272
---------------------------------------------------
Weighted Average
2
Highest Probability
1 1280
Error of each number
0.495
1; 5; 4; (0, 3); (2, 6, 7, 8, 9).
Here 0 and 3 have an equal weight 8; and (2, 6, 7, 8, 9) have an
equal weight 0. For simplicity, we pick us 3 numbers:
The Predictor indicates:
Lower string = 1, 5, 4.
Next, if the lower bound = 1 and the upper bound = 3, then we get 1, 2, 3.
Next, if the lower bound = 1 and the upper bound = 7, then we get 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7.
The ranking is 1 (because we get 1 first), then 2, 3 (because we get 2, 3 next); then 5, 6, 7, 4. The ranking string is:
This example is can be generated by clicking "Example/Cash 3 (y)".
Click command: "Integer/+ Linear Enumerative" (the second click), you will get:
0 256
3 16
8 512
9 8
---------------------------------------------------
Weighted Average
5
Highest Probability
8 512
Error of each number
0.495
Click command: "Integer/-- Enumerative"(the third
click) and you will have:
2 16
3 4
4 1
7 16
9 9
---------------------------------------------------
Weighted Average
5
Highest Probability
2 16
Error of each number
0.495
The Predictor indicates:
Lower string = {7, 2}.
Next, if the lower bound = 2 and the upper bound = 8, then we get 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.
The ranking string for the second digit is 7, 8, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.
This example is also packed in the Predictor, which can be generated by clicking "Example/Cash 3 (z)".
Click command: "Integer/+ Linear Enumerative" (the
second click), you will get:
Can not make a Prediction.
To get a prediction, you can:
(1) Add more data;
If you do not have more data; then click 'Data/Link' and:
(2) Reduce Trend; or/and
(3) Reduce Precision level;
You may also consider:
(4) Reduce the number of variables in your data set.
See the User's Guide
---------------------------------------------------
8 64
---------------------------------------------------
Weighted Average
8
Highest Probability
8 64
Error of each number
0.555556
Click command: "Integer/-- Enumerative" (the third click) and
1 9
3 8
4 546
5 528
6 514
7 49
8 2
9 145
---------------------------------------------------
Weighted Average
5
Highest Probability
4 546
Error of each number
0.555556
The Predictor indicates:
Lower string = {4, 5, 6}.
The ranking string for the third digit (4, 8), 5, 6, 7.
To collect the predictions, we have (given the order):
x: 1; then 2, 3; then 5, 6, 7, 4.y: (7, 8); then 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.
z: (4, 8); then 5, 6, then 7.
The first picks are
select any x-digit from {1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7, 4},select any y-digit from {7, 8, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}, and
select any z-digit from {4, 5, 6, 7, 8}.
All combinations of the above xyz values give 245 numbers. Let the
objective of the game be emphasized again: the criteria is to increase
the winning chance by a factor of 4, compared with natural course, i.e.
instead of winning once per 1000, we try to win once per 250.
Standard version has 10,000 neurons, and a certain number of internal neurons. If you need a larger software, please contact http://attrasoft.com.
In your prediction, if you set
N*M*K <= 10,000 neurons . Standard version;
This number can go as high as 1,000,000 in a customized version.